摘要 :
Using cross-country data for developed and developing countries over the period 1980-2007, we study the effects of the Inflation Targeting regime on levels and volatilities of inflation, GDP growth and fiscal imbalances. Our resul...
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Using cross-country data for developed and developing countries over the period 1980-2007, we study the effects of the Inflation Targeting regime on levels and volatilities of inflation, GDP growth and fiscal imbalances. Our results indicate that the targeting developing countries are associated with lower and more stable inflation, as well as higher and more stable GDP growth. The targeting developed nations experience higher GDP growth and conduct more disciplined fiscal policy after adopting the regime. The improvements in fiscal imbalances may be at least partly attributed to the attempts to achieve an inflation target. We conclude that non-targeting countries, would highly benefit from targeting inflation.
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摘要 :
This paper studies the optimal long-run inflation rate in a labor search and matching framework in the presence of downward nominal wage rigidity. Optimal monetary policy features positive inflation in the long run; the optimal an...
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This paper studies the optimal long-run inflation rate in a labor search and matching framework in the presence of downward nominal wage rigidity. Optimal monetary policy features positive inflation in the long run; the optimal annual long-run inflation rate for the U.S. economy is slightly below 1 percent with a money demand motive and around 2 percent otherwise. Positive inflation facilitates real wage adjustments and hence it eases job creation and prevents excessive increase in unemployment following adverse productivity shocks. The findings of the paper can also be related to standard Ramsey theory of "wedge smoothing"; with positive inflation under sticky prices, the size and the volatility of the intertemporal wedge are significantly reduced.
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摘要 :
This article studies the monthly net job creation (NJC) at the aggregate and the sectoral levels in the United States over the period 1950 to 2011. The article has few important findings. First, NJC did not show a significant tren...
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This article studies the monthly net job creation (NJC) at the aggregate and the sectoral levels in the United States over the period 1950 to 2011. The article has few important findings. First, NJC did not show a significant trend over the last six decades, which led to a fall in the NJC rate. Second, NJC was very volatile and it could change course even in the span of 1 month. Third, there was no clear pattern about the co-movement between NJC and the change in the unemployment rate. Fourth, the averages of total NJC and private NJC since late 2010 were significantly higher than their respective historical averages and the volatility in NJC since the end of the Great Recession was not unusual by historical standards. Fifth, while the evidence about the effects of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on employment is inconclusive, some sectors appeared to benefit from it. Finally, the most frequent drop in the unemployment rate was by 0.1%, and drops of more than 0.2% should not be highly expected.
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摘要 :
Using the monthly "Employment Situation" reports for 1994-2013, this paper studies the revisions to US employment data. The paper shows that the first press release underestimates net job creation in expansions and overestimates i...
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Using the monthly "Employment Situation" reports for 1994-2013, this paper studies the revisions to US employment data. The paper shows that the first press release underestimates net job creation in expansions and overestimates it in downturns. The "errors" in reporting the data on the labor market can distort the public's perception about the stance of the labor market and have some political consequences. This is well reflected by the finding that the job approval rating of President Obama, the index of consumer confidence, and the economic conditions index of Gallup have all been responding to the initial news on the US labor market as they were published in the Employment Situation reports.
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摘要 :
This paper suggests that a model in which firms face credit constraints on hiring labor can explain both the behavior of the labor wedge and the "jobless recoveries" phenomenon of the last three recessions. Using the corporate cre...
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This paper suggests that a model in which firms face credit constraints on hiring labor can explain both the behavior of the labor wedge and the "jobless recoveries" phenomenon of the last three recessions. Using the corporate credit spread as a measure of firms' credit conditions, I show that the "jobless recoveries" of the U.S. economy from the last three recessions were associated with slow declines in the spread following those recessions. The credit conditions of firms, thus, were important in shaping the labor market recoveries of the last two decades.
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